Now that the lottery has been conducted and the Jackets know where they will be picking, some of the questions around the direction of the roster can be better analyzed. As such, an idea of what the opening night roster could look like is beginning to take shape, or at least in theory at the very least. In this exercise, I’ll be taking my first guess at predicting the opening night roster and giving a little bit of reasoning behind my logic for the lineup construction as well.
Note, this prediction will be making a few guesses at some moves the Jackets may make this summer. This is merely a thought exercise and not meant to reflect reality as things will change between now and opening night. That said, I am accounting for the following moves being made that are relevant to the roster in this hypothetical world:
In: D Sam Girard (trade), F Leo Carlsson (draft),
Out: F Jack Roslovic (trade), F Emil Bemstrom (trade), D Andrew Peeke (trade), F Cole Sillinger (AHL)
The logic here is as follows:
- The Jackets need to improve their forward group, hence moving on from Roslovic and Bemstrom.
- Although center is a desperate need for the team, Sillinger needs more seasoning and will likely start the season in CLE to get experience playing top line minutes.
- The Jackets are almost certainly going to make some sort of move for a left shot defenseman, in this case I have had the Jackets trade for Girard. Really though, you can substitute him in the lineup for any defenseman of your choosing, he is just the example I’m using for this exercise.
- Additionally, there is a logjam of right-handed defensemen that will need to be addressed. Gudbranson would be an obvious choice but the team values what he brings to the table, making Peeke the next likely option.
- The exercise is assuming the Jackets pick Carlsson and that he is NHL ready. You can substitute him for Fantilli if you want to work on the assumption that he drops to #3.
Now that that’s all out of the way, let’s get into the lineup predictions.
Fwd Line 1: Gaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko
Analysis: The most obvious observation that can be made here “no move for a fill in center on the first line?” This prediction is working under the logic that Jenner is probably a better fill in than some of the other options out there and is already under contract, so you don’t have to add to get him. Add in that the 3 guys listed here showed some decent chemistry together towards the end of the season and you have the makings of a first line that can hold the puck and score in a variety of ways. Gaudreau brings the playmaking, Jenner the forechecking and faceoff mastery and Marchenko the finishing and nose for the net. Eventually and honestly hopefully, Jenner is pushed off the first line for a higher upside, true number 1 center but to start, the Jackets would be wise to put them together.
Fwd Line 2: Johnson – Carlsson – Laine
Analysis: This would be probably one of the most potent second lines the Jackets have ever rolled out in their 20+ year history. Keeping Carlsson away from top line matchups allows him to adapt to the NHL more easily and pairing him with two highly skilled players in Laine and Johnson gives the line a very high offensive ceiling. Johnson brings the playmaking and productivity here, but the key really is Laine. Given the lack of chemistry shown with Gaudreau and the fact that he operates better as the main option on his line, Laine seems to fit better as a lethal secondary scorer meant to create a matchup nightmare for other teams. The downside to this line is obvious, the defensive upside doesn’t seem to be high and consequently, other teams could feast on this lines projected inability to defend in their own zone. Regardless, I think the upside is too high to not give this a shot, at the very least.
Fwd Line 3: Texier – Voronkov – Chinakhov
Analysis: Speed, relentlessness, and tenacity, that’s what this line would bring and in today’s NHL, every good team seems to have a line that can bring exactly that. This line projects to be able to annoy the hell out of every team they face as both Texier and Chinakhov bring speed and skill while Voronkov provides the grit and nastiness up the middle. It would be fair to question this line’s ability to defend and hold onto the puck as all 3 players are relatively young but the upside here is strong, strong enough to give it a shot to start the season. The other question is Voronkovs readiness coming over from Russia because depending on that, it could impact not just this lines effectiveness but the Jackets plan at center overall.
Fwd Line 4: Foudy – Kuraly – Danforth
Analysis: Surprisingly, this was a struggle to figure out as in addition to the 3 players mentioned here, both Robinson and Olivier are under team control for next season as well. You can also factor Voronkov in as well given potentially a move for a center and/or Sillinger proving he’s an NHL option right off the bat. In the end, I went with the 3 above for a multitude of reasons. Robinson is redundant since Foudy brings an offensive upside to the speed and forechecking ability as well. Danforth and Olivier were harder to choose between since their games are relatively similar but, in the end, I went with Danforth because I believe his snarl is slightly above Olivier though I could easily see the argument the other way around. Kuraly is the one constant here and it is imperative that the Jackets build a fourth line around him that is consistent and hard to play against this season.
Defense Line 1: Werenski – Jiricek
Analysis: This is the homerun call. Management fully expects Jiricek to be ready to contribute full time next season, but it is entirely possible that he’ll need to start lower in the lineup. However, given that he projects to be Werenski’s long term partner and that he has tremendous upside, why not give them opportunity to run it together to start the season? Werenski is a known all-star caliber commodity and Jiricek’s sky high potential gives this pair the potential to be crazy good for years to come.
Defense Line 2: Girard – Boqvist
Analysis: Filling in Gavrikov’s shoes on the left side of the second defensive pairing is Girard coming over from Colorado. While not as physically capable, he brings playoff experience, the ability to skate the puck out of the zone and can chip in offensively as well. However, the other side of this pairing is the big question mark. This could be Boqvist’s make or break year as both fans and management have been eagerly waiting for him to put it all together and take next step forward while also developing the ability to stay healthy over the course of the season.
Defense Line 3: Bean – Blankenburg
Analysis: This is likely Beans’ last opportunity to solidify himself a spot in the lineup. He has some solid attributes, but his defense tends to be lacking on the best of nights and seems to drift in and out of games in general. On the other side of this pairing, Blankenbur, while he isn’t perfect by any stretch, brings emotion, physicality, and energy. He’ll make the occasional mistake, but the Jackets clearly value what he brings to the team. Overall, this bottom pairing has been evolving over the last couple of seasons and if neither of these guys can prove they deserve a spot, they’ll inevitably be passed by other options as the Jackets can’t afford for their defense to be as atrocious as it was the last 2 seasons.
Goalie: Merzlikins – Tarasov
Although he’s only going into the second year of his deal, there is enormous pressure on Elvis to get it figured out. He has the ability to be a solid NHL goalie and even these last two horrendous seasons, he would occasionally flash that ability, however his play has been nowhere near close enough to justify the contract he’s on and even more importantly, to give the Jackets the goaltending they need to be competitive. Behind him, Tarasov has also seemingly slowed in his development, but he has a longer leash given his age and him being forced into NHL games last season that he clearly wasn’t ready for some nights. Overall, a lot of the Jackets fate next season depends on one or both goalies figuring it out and fast. Otherwise, this will become a crucial question that will need to be answered.
Final Notes:
- You’ll notice that for all the forwards subtracted, the only addition made in this scenario is projected third overall pick, Leo Carlsson. The logic here is that even though the Jackets have been rumored to be in on some veteran forwards, there simply isn’t space without making other moves, moves that will likely be highly contested. You could possibly say that maybe Carlsson and/or Voronkov aren’t quite ready which would open up a spot for a veteran, however it is hard to make that evaluation before training camp has opened.
- Defense is still a massive work in progress. Even if Girard is not the eventual acquisition, it’s impossible to not think the position won’t be addressed in some capacity. You simply can’t rely on Bean bouncing back or shifting Blankenburg over or even thinking maybe Svozil is ready. It simply must be better and some sort of external solution must be brought in even if it’s a short-term one.
- Whether it’s Merzlikins or Tarasov, someone needs to step it up in goal. Yes, the defense has given up a lot and projects to do so, although hopefully not as much, yet you need your goalie to give you a save when you need it most. If neither guy shows the ability to be an NHL level starter, Jarmo will address it and fast, he simply can’t afford to wait around.
- On paper this team isn’t necessarily the worst. The forward group is reasonably deep and can score and you can try to be optimistic that the defense and goaltending will finally show up with players developing or bouncing back as well as staying healthy.
- The key to success here is likely who will be behind the bench. There are differences but a large portion of the team from last season will be back in the lineup, and these are players on a team that was coached by a head coach who couldn’t get the best out of them. A lot of the guys have another level to hit, more steps to their development, and having the right guy who can coach the team up to their potential will make the difference between another mediocre-dreadful season or finally a push to contend for the playoffs.
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